Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Posts Tagged ‘stress tests of the banking system’

As the news and analysis continues to flow from this stress testing of the banking system, I become more and more disturbed.  The Government decided it would be a good idea to run a simulated stress test on 19 of the largest banks in the  United States.  They want to make sure that they banking system can handle the worst situation.  The Government has the results of the test and have told the banking system.

The Government is basically telling the banking system whether or not the individual banks are weak or strong.  They are doing this based on their own system.  In other words, career politicians and in some cases, individuals who have never run a bank before, are telling bankers about their health based on a simulated experiment.  Those results were due to be released tomorrow.  Then it was changed to Thursday.  Now it has been changed to Friday.  Banks are up in arms about the results and don’t necessarily agree with the Government’s assessment.

The Government is now giving banks mandates and telling them that they have to raise capital.  Citibank is rumored to need 10 billion dollars in extra capital to meet the Government mandate.  For the weaker banks, they will be forced to give the Government more and more ownership through the use of common stock. 

So, go with this scenario with me for a while. There was a king who wanted to take over the entire country.  The king  knew that he had to control most of the country’s businesses in order to have complete control over the system.   So, the king had his servents assess the local businesses.  The servents reported back to the king that the businesses were weak.  The king said that they had to triple their sales in a week or he was going to take ownership.  The businesses knowing that this would be impossible had to give up control.  As a result the king controls the country.

The red flags are flying and the Government is taking a step-by-step approach to get ownership of the banking system and this seems to disturb only a small percentage of Americans.  For that, I have no answer.  Maybe I am completely off base and paraniod.  It woulnd’t be the first time.  I just know two things.  First, politicians have never proven that they can be trusted.  Second, the Government is seeking to control alot of our once capitalistic system and doing so at an alarming rate of speed.  Paranoid?  I don’t think so.

With stress testing and swine flu outbreaks (probably a little overrated) as the backdrop, the market continues to march higher.  At this point it looks like the S&P 500 has a date with destiny at the price level of 900.   Analyst Jeff Saut posted his weekly commentary this morning and wrote that he characterized the last 9 weeks as a buying stampede.  It is a period where investors stampede into the market and buy as much stock as possible.   His analysis shows that the longest buying stampede that he has on record is 41 days.  Currently, we are on day 39 of the buying stampede.  We are also at a point where the stock market (S&P 500) is almost positive for the year.  That would occur at a close above 903. 

If you are wanting to reduce risk by selling stock, there might not be a better time to do so. As this rally continues, the risk grows greater and greater.  If you were going to stay fully invested you would do so based on the notion that all of the worst is behind us.

Advertisements

Read Full Post »

I was talking to a buddy of mine in the money management business.  He was much more bullish shorter-term than me.  So, as usual, we debated the markets.  He said that he doesn’t see anything on the horizon that could be a big stumbling block.  My reply was it is the problem that you don’t see that is the problem. 

The challenge is that we are in an environment that is ripe with major risk that we don’t see.  Just a week ago, who had ever heard of swine flu?  Can that be a big problem?  I heard that this could get bad enough to wipe -5% of growth from the economy.  I am still undecided if this is the big pandemic that they have predicted.  It just doesn’t have that feel to it.  I think that the bigger risk lurks within the stress tests of the banking system that we will see next week.

The stress tests are worrisome.  I am extremely distrustful of the government and their agenda.  As I have stated before, there is no good reason to stress test the banks and then release the results.  There must be another reason why they are going this direction.  So, I guess we will see next week. 

As for this current market, the S&P 500 must finish the day over 875 and stay there for this current rally to stay bullish.  It is having a great deal of trouble with that price level.  Today didn’t tell us much.  Now that Obama’s first 100 days are out of the way and the end of the month is over (there are many things that occur to push the markets up so that month end investment statements will look good) we will see how the market act without any interference.

As for this current market, the S&P 500 must finish the day over 875 and stay there for this current rally to stay bullish.  It is having a great deal of trouble with that price level.  Today didn’t tell us much.  Now that Obama’s first 100 days are out of the way and the end of the month is over (there are many things that occur to push the markets up so that month end investment statements will look good) we will see how the market acts without any interference.

Read Full Post »