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Posts Tagged ‘Great Depression’

So do you think that we are still in a recession? According to the agency that dates the starting and ending of recessions, it has been over for a long time. The National Bureau of Economic Research stated today that the recession that began in December 2007 actually ended June 2009. It has been referred to as the Great Recession because it is the longest recession (18 months) since the Great Depression (43 months).

So great! The NBER states we are out of the woods. Let me ask you a question – Is the recession over in your world? Do you feel better off than you did over a year ago? Keep this in mind when it comes to economic numbers – numbers can be manipulated and interpreted in many different ways. It is very easy to misrepresent with numbers – just remember what the government does with the unemployment report each month as a case in point.

Statistically you could say we are not in a recession. However, ask the people who have been laid off, facing or faced foreclosure, dealing with over-indebtedness, etc. if the recession is over in their lives. Statistics say one thing and reality says another. At the end of the day, I don’t think that the Great Recession of 2007 is going to get the press it deserves.

However, these favorable statistics do make for good political sound bites.

    State of the Stock Market

I would state that this is an important week for the stock market. The market has bounced back nicely in September and is at a 4 month high. Further, it has also risen past some key levels. However, it also has done so on very light volume which is not the sign of a healthy market. If the market starts a significant decline from these levels, I would not automatically assume it is just a pullback. I would take it seriously.

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Unemployment numbers came out last Friday and they paint a very concerning situation.   The unemployment rate is 9.8% and the economy lost another 263,000 jobs.  That is 22 months in a row of job losses.  I looked back at historical data that I have that goes back to 1939 and cannot find a string of job losses this bad.  You would have to go back to the Great Depression. Fortunately, unemployment is not as bad thus far.  Here is what it looked like in the 30’s.

 

Now take a look at the latest from Shadowstats.  It shows a comparison between what the Government reports, the Department of Labor (which is higher and more accurate), and then their data which includes everyone effected by unemployment.  As you can see, Shadowstats is close to 22% unemployed.  That is a far cry from what the Government is reporting. 

Now we also always like to see how many jobs the Government “estimated.”  Every month, the Government estimates jobs created or lost that they feel that the Department of Labor misses.  Yes, this is purely a bogus number.  This last month it was actually on the low side. They added 34,000 jobs into the total.   In 9 months, they have created 1,063,000 jobs out of thin air.  Now do you know why you can’t trust Government reporting?

In 2008, they created 904,000 jobs out of thin air.

In 2007, they created 883,000 jobs out of thin air.

Dating back to early 2000, I cannot find a year where they have been so aggressive.  The problem is that we continue to lose 250,000 jobs a month with no job creation in sight.  We aren’t even stopping the bleeding much less creating jobs.  They have let this problem get way out of control and now the problem is going to be tough to eliminate.  Let’s all hope that the graphs don’t end up looking like the one in the 1930’s.

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A recent article in the Dallas Morning News states that we just don’t have anything to worry about going forward regarding a “double dip” recession.  A double dip recession is one where you go through one recession, the recession concludes, and then it comes back again.  Of course, that would mean that the stock market would come tumbling down again as well.

September 14, 2009 edition

“I can now report that it’s time to lift up your melancholy spirits and go find something else to worry about.  Double-dip recessions are very rare events.”

“Since WWII, there are really no examples-except 1980-82….”

The writer also points out that, “you would think a 50% upside prance in the stock market would be met with some measure of confidence rather than such an undercurrent of distrust.”

The biggest mistake that the media is making in the reporting of this recession is comparing it to normal recessions and normal cycles.  The writer would need to go back further than 70 years to take a look at the full length of the Great Depression to get a better comparison. No, I don’t think that we are spiraling into a depression.  I do think that in the least a double dip recession is a high probability. 

People are distrustful regardless of the rise in the stock market.  There is rampant unemployment, a foreclosure crisis, and consumers faced with mountains of debt.  That is not even considering a Congress that is trying to ruin this country through socialistic policies. 

To get a good comparison, you can’t look at post WWII recessions.  It would be a lot like comparing apples to oranges.  This is what makes this situation so dangerous.  Yes, people are distrustful.  At the same time, people are also hopeful.  They are hopeful that the worst is behind us.  If that doesn’t turn out to be the case, confidence will be destroyed and that will be the biggest problem the markets and the economy face.  Today, at least confidence is on life support after a grueling 2008. 

Levels in the Market

I haven’t covered significant levels in the stock market in a long time.  (Click here for a description of what I mean by levels.) For the S&P 500, we are starting down a few key levels that are right in front of us.  It is a range of levels between 1042 and 1062.  The ability for the stock market to get above 1062 and stay there would be a very bullish event. 

Isn’t a rise of 55% in the stock market a bullish event in itself?  Only if the bear market is over.  Thus far, the levels necessary to declare the intermediate trend change from a bear to a bull have not occurred.  It would take the S&P 500 getting over and staying over the level of 1119 for that to occur.

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When everyone thinks the same way, everyone is likely to be wrong.         The Art of Contrary Thinking – Humphrey Neill

Everyone thinks that we are going into hyper-inflation.  I have argued that deflation is more of a problem than anything else.  Debt is a deflation problem, not an inflation problem.

Unfortunately, time is the only thing that cures a debt crisis.  You just don’t have the elements that create inflation.  People are not going to all of the sudden start buying things and circulating printed money.  All of that money that is being printed will be absorbed by debt and losses. 

Scott Burns wrote a good piece the other day about his discussion with Lacy Hunt.  It is a good hysterical perspective on deflation.  Ironically, he talks about Irving Fisher in the article and refers to him as the greatest American economist.  Irving Fisher was the same guy who argued repeatedly that there would be no depression or stock market crash prior to the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing -86% between 1929 and 1933.  Most of his work on deflation was written in 1933 with the Great Depression as the backdrop.   

The difference between the Great Depression and today is that the Government has been more proactive in solving the debt problem.  The similarity is that both situations (1929 and today) were created as a result of a debt crisis.

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The bottom line:  As long as the ranks of the unemployed continue to increase, the damage to the economy will worsen.  As a result, risk for a continuing bear market remains high. 

Yesterday, I wrote about a discussion that I had with a friend of mine that manages money. 

My friend completely disagrees with me regarding my cautious outlook.  His argument is that there are a lot of risks in the stock market.  However, the market is comfortable with that risk.  In other words, we have seen the full extent of the risk.  If you think about it, it is the big surprises that cause the large declines in the market.

Although I agree with that opinion, I don’t agree that the worst is behind us.  We have to consider the problems that are brewing on the horizon that have yet to become a full blown problem. 

I wrote that the stock market can get comfortable with the risk that can be seen.  However, at the same time, there can be a category 5 financial storm brewing out in the distance that has yet to arrive.  So, I wanted to write about what I feel makes up that category 5 financial storm.  Today, I will talk about unemployment.

I really do feel that this is the biggest symptom of the financial crisis that can cause the greatest problem.  There are a few ways to look at unemployment.  We can look at the monthly report which shows us the unemployment report for the past month.   You have to be careful deriving to much from this report.  The monthly unemployment report is really telling you old news.  Those unemployment numbers are a result of weak economic conditions that have already occurred. In fact, an economy will start to recover well before the employment situation gets any better.

Then we can look at the weekly jobless claims.  This gives you real-time information showing how many people are receiving unemployment benefits from the Government as well as how many filed first time claims the week before.  This weekly number continues to climb and it seems that we continue to see weekly records.  Currently, over 6 million people are claiming unemployment benefits.

The Government gives their “version” of the unemployment number each month.  It is grossly understated.  It doesn’t give you an accurate look at unemployment.  It doesn’t account for so many people who have fallen out of the system.  Plus, they include an estimate of how many people that they think received jobs that the report didn’t cover. 

The real number according to the analysts who really follow the real statistics is closer to 19%.  Keep in mind that during the Great Depression the number was 25%. 

I believe that the unemployment situation in America has gone past the point that it can be easily fixed.  Thus this unemployment problem could be around a lot longer than anyone expects.  It is like cancer.  The longer the cancer is allowed to be a problem the more damage is done.  The bigger problem is that the Government is doing very little to fix the unemployment problem which just exacerbates the problem. 

The bottom line:  As long as the ranks of the unemployed continue to increase, the damage to the economy will worsen.  As a result, risk for a continuing bear market remains high.  Tomorrow, I will go over the second reason.

Market update – The stock market is grappling over the potential of a real problem with the swine flu.  It is way too early to determine how big of a problem this will become. However, experts say that timing-wise we are due to experience a pandemic.  It warrants keeping a close eye on this one.

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