What the Economic Data is Not Telling Us

It was announced Friday morning that 190,000 jobs were lost, which is higher than economists predicted.   That is significant for one reason.  At this stage in the game, we should NOT be seeing this amount of jobs being lost.  Companies get to the point where they stop laying people off because they have already cut to [...]

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Unemployment Starting to Look a Lot Like the 30’s

Unemployment numbers came out last Friday and they paint a very concerning situation.   The unemployment rate is 9.8% and the economy lost another 263,000 jobs.  That is 22 months in a row of job losses.  I looked back at historical data that I have that goes back to 1939 and cannot find a string of [...]

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The Main Question Might Be Getting Answered

Back in March of this year when the stock market found a bottom, I posed a question that I felt would be “the” question for investors. Is this a bear market rally or is this the beginning of a bull market?
I have felt all along that this is nothing more than a bear market rally. [...]

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Financial Hurricane Getting Stronger

In 2006, I was writing to my clients in my private client letter about what I felt was occurring in the financial markets.  I described what I felt was coming as a Category 5 hurricane.  I think that I even named it Hurricane Greenspan at the time.  Although he is a distant memory, he had [...]

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Has the Housing Market Bottomed?

“Worst of the housing recession is now behind us” declares one economist.  New home sales rose last month at the fastest clip in more than 8 years.  There is a good reason why home sales are increasing but there is another reason not to get too giddy over this economic data. 
First, prices are falling to [...]

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Here Comes the Unemployment Numbers

If you are bullish on the market (positive), then you had to like the fact that we fell into a dangerous area (around 896 on the S&P 500) and then rebounded.  We ended the week on not such a hot note. However, we ended above the danger zone.  So, what are we looking at this [...]

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Deflation Still The Trend

When everyone thinks the same way, everyone is likely to be wrong.         The Art of Contrary Thinking – Humphrey Neill
Everyone thinks that we are going into hyper-inflation.  I have argued that deflation is more of a problem than anything else.  Debt is a deflation problem, not an inflation problem.
Unfortunately, time is the only thing that cures [...]

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Corporate Insiders Are Very Bearish

Forget about what the Government, Wall Street, or the economists say about the probabilities for the stock market and the economy.  Instead, look at what the people in the day to day trenches are doing with their money.  A key indicator is the actions of the corporate insiders and whether they are buying or selling [...]

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The Bear Snores On

My boys have a book called the Bear Snores On.  It is a story about a bear that sleeps through a party that his animal friends had in the bear’s cave while he was sleeping.  The bear continued to sleep despite all of the noise going on around him.
Each page of the story would tell [...]

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Hardly Stressing

Well, the results of the stress tests were revealed this past week.  It turned out to be much ado about nothing.  In fact, most of the banking stocks went up on the news.  It does leave the question as to what the Obama Administration is really trying to accomplish through a process that didn’t make much [...]

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Big Stock Market Moves Often End Badly

The faster they go up…the harder they fall.  The price of oil was a good example of this last year.  The price of oil took off last year and fell just as hard.  When markets move quickly in either direction, the corresponding move can be intense.  So, it should be no surprise that we have [...]

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10 Trillion Reasons Why We Have A Problem

My friend Joe sends me disturbing articles from time to time.  This is the most disturbing one.  This is your Government at work destroying our country.  This is why we will never return back to normal.  This is why the stock market remains EXTREMELY risky.  Before you go to the chart, consider this:
Our Government has [...]

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Everything is not Always What it Seems!

Hello, my name is Bob Brooks, and I am a gloom and doomer. 
Well, sometimes I feel like I need to go to a 12 step group.  While everyone is popping the champagne bottles on Wall Street and the market puts in yet another strong day, I still stick to my guns about what is occurring.  [...]

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A Deeper Look into Stress Testing Reveals March towards Socialism

As the news and analysis continues to flow from this stress testing of the banking system, I become more and more disturbed.  The Government decided it would be a good idea to run a simulated stress test on 19 of the largest banks in the  United States.  They want to make sure that they banking [...]

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How Bad Could Swine Flu Get? What other risks are we not seeing?

I was talking to a buddy of mine in the money management business.  He was much more bullish shorter-term than me.  So, as usual, we debated the markets.  He said that he doesn’t see anything on the horizon that could be a big stumbling block.  My reply was it is the problem that you don’t [...]

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